Risk Premium Reversal, Tin Prices Fluctuate at Highs [Institutional Commentary]

On Monday, the most-traded SHFE tin 2504 contract fluctuated rangebound during the day and its center pulled back slightly at night, while LME tin fluctuated downward. Spot market: It was heard that small brands were trading at a discount of 200 to a premium of 100 yuan/mt for April, Yunnan brands at a premium of 100 to 400 yuan/mt, and Yunxi at a premium of 400 to 600 yuan/mt for April.

SMM: As of last Friday, social inventory stood at 10,548 mt, up 398 mt WoW. By last Friday, the operating rate of refined tin smelters in the two major tin-producing provinces, Yunnan and Jiangxi, dropped back slightly, with a combined operating rate reaching 61.5%. Data from Indonesia's Ministry of Trade showed that Indonesia exported 3,926.93 mt of refined tin in February, up 150% MoM and significantly higher YoY. The cumulative export for January-February was 5,493 mt.

Xingye Silver Tin: Currently, there is no risk of long-term shutdown at the mining area of Yinman Mining. On the 22nd, the "M23 Movement" announced that it would adhere to the unilateral ceasefire it had previously declared, redeploying troops in the town of Walikale to create conditions for a peaceful resolution of the dispute.

Overall, although the "M23 Movement" announced a ceasefire on the 22nd, the DRC government remains skeptical, and local political situation remains uncertain, leaving uncertainties in tin ore production. In February, Indonesia's refined tin exports improved both YoY and MoM, while LME destocking slowed down. Under the influence of high prices, domestic inventory buildup continued for two consecutive weeks. Short-term supply disruptions did not further escalate, and risk premiums were given back, with tin prices fluctuating at highs.